Weekly Economic Index Was Expected to Remain Below 3%: June 17, 2026

The Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index ticked below 3% for the first time in four weeks in last Thursday’s print and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market believed on Wednesday, June 17 that the 2-handle would stick in the following day’s update. The “Yes” at 3% was still priced at 38%, however, as an acceleration was possible, especially in consideration of the previous figure coming in near at 2.9%. Meanwhile, a move up closer to the year-to-date peak of 3.22%, more or less consistent with the “Yes” at 3.2%, carried odds on Wednesday of just 17%. Despite the recent deceleration and the expectation of an incoming statistic in the high 2s, it’s important to note that growth in that vicinity is considered robust.

Prediction Market contract - Weekly Economic Index line chart

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 17, 2026.

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