On Wednesday, initial US unemployment claims were expected to jump modestly but stay in the safe zone when released on the following day as layoff prospects have remained subdued. The prior Thursday’s 197k was projected to rise to around 200k, according to the weekly Reuters poll of 34 forecasters. Additionally, there appeared to be a narrow range of potential outcomes, as the minimum and maximum estimates within the survey as of Wednesday were at 195k and 205k. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, investors were looking for a slightly hotter-than-anticipated headline, as the “Yes” corresponding with a result of at least 200k was priced at $0.63. Over and under, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 210k, 205k and 195k on Wednesday were at $0.06, $0.17 and $0.83. For participants that may have been factoring in an increase, the loftier thresholds may have appeared undervalued.
Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 30, 2026.
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