US Industrial Production Was Expected Near 1.6% on Monday: June 12, 2026

The Monday, June 15 US industrial production release was expected to reflect a slight acceleration in the annualized figure as the manufacturing sector remains in firm expansion. The growth is being driven largely by capital expenditures tied to AI, and on Friday, June 12, I believed that the print could exceed expectations with an approximately 1.8% result, while the consensus estimate was 1.7%. The range of potential outcomes, however, was particularly wide, as the monthly Reuters poll comprised of 16 forecasters carried low and high estimates of 1.4% and 1.9% on Friday. Against this backdrop, the “Yes” at 1% in the Interactive Brokers prediction market was priced at $0.86. On Friday, I believed it should have cost closer to $0.96 considering that the path to a result that subdued was incredibly narrow. I also believed the 1.5% “Yes” was attractive at $0.55, however, I favored the former opportunity. 

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 12, 2026. 

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