On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets showed coin-flip odds of the following day’s New Residential Construction Report from the US Census Bureau having results that were generally near the central expectations of the monthly Reuters polls of economists. For August permits, the “Yes” contracts with thresholds of 1.3 million, 1.4 million and 1.5 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) were priced at $0.92, $0.51 and $0.10, as participants anticipated a decline from 1.443 million. Similarly, the 33 forecasters in the survey had a median expectation of 1.41 million, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum estimates of 1.35 million and 1.43 million, which is emblematic of this indicator’s elevated historical deviation rate, or its high relative potential to arrive well off the consensus’s range.
Starts Were Expected To Recover From Bumpy Rise
Also on Wednesday, housing starts were expected to recover from July’s 1.239 million SAAU, as the “Yeses” at 1.2 million, 1.3 million and 1.4 million were going for $0.89, $0.56 and $0.11 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets for the Thursday release of the August number. Similarly, the 43 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll were at a median of 1.309 million, but the minimum and maximum estimates had a wide range of values of 1.2 million and 1.4 million. The vast range of potential outcomes illustrates the bumpy ride this particular indicator has experienced in recent months as it’s been much harder to predict than with other gauges.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 16, 2026.
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