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Trump Comments Send Warsh Fed, Greenland US Odds to Fresh Records: Jan. 16, 2026

Trump Comments Send Warsh Fed, Greenland US Odds to Fresh Records: Jan. 16, 2026

Posted January 19, 2026 at 7:32 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

President Trump’s comments to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stating that he’d prefer to keep him where he is sent the odds of US Former Fed Governor Warsh being nominated as Chair to the central a fresh record of 67% on Friday, before settling in at 60%. Hasset’s chances dropped from 40% down to 15% on the news, meanwhile, current Governor Christopher Waller rose from 8% to 15%.

Forecast contract - Will President Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greenland Becoming Part of US Rises To 51% Record

The odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US rose to a fresh record on Friday as well following President Trump’s threats of new tariffs to countries that don’t go along with Washington’s quest to acquire the island territory in the name of national security. The initial volatility faded quickly, however, with the likelihood falling back to 40% shortly after.

Forecast contract - Will any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or rather federal juristriction by December 31, 2028?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 16, 2026. Time until expiration is also as of Jan. 16, 2026.

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Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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