Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is historically volatile, making it difficult to forecast. It sustains an elevated deviation rate, meaning it tends to arrive well off of the aggregate economist expectation. Emblematic of the past’s wild swings, this coming Thursday’s print has forecasters all over the place, as the monthly Reuters poll of eight analysts carries a wide range from 1.8% to 2.8%, with the median standing at 2%. The Interactive Brokers prediction market on Tuesday, however, priced 67% and 6% likelihoods of numbers coming in ahead of 2% and 2.5%, as the odds pointed to 1.9% as the most likely headline figure. Meanwhile, the global surge in energy costs is expected to raise the gauge from its first three results of 2026, which were 1.1%, 1.7% and 1.7%, with the degree of the lift characterizing the debate. Those at 2% or below anticipate a minimal impact from crude oil remaining north of $100, while those above 2% project a more meaningful consequence.
Source for images: ForecastEx – Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 19, 2026.
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