Tuesday’s Singapore Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to reflect an acceleration in price pressure as May is looking like the month when global inflation rates marked a 2026 peak. Indeed, progress on the US-Iran deal front pointed to June being below May. To that end, I believed on Monday that the Tuesday print would lead to Interactive Brokers Prediction Market presenting an attractive opportunity because it was highly unlikely that May inflation would be lower than April. For this reason, the “Yes” at 1.6% on Monday was attractively priced at $0.69 when considering that a decline from 1.8% to 1.6% was improbable. Furthermore, of the 14 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, no one entered a number as low as 1.6%, in light of the range of projections spanning from 1.7% to 2.1%, amidst a median of 2%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Hong Kong CPI Expected Near 2%
Similarly, Hong Kong’s May CPI on Monday was expected to increase to around 2% from 1.7% in April, consistent with global annualized inflation rates rising throughout the timeframe. Just one of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll expected an unchanged figure, which is the minimum projection. Meanwhile, the median and maximum estimates on Monday were at 1.9% and 2.2%, against the backdrop of the 2% “Yes” going for $0.42 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 22, 2026.
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