Tuesday night’s State of the Union (SOTU) address in the US failed to narrow the Democrats House of Representatives lead heading into this year’s midterm elections. The likelihood of a flip in the chamber’s majority started the year at 75% but has been rising as President Trump’s approval ratings have declined. It appears that the commander in chief’s attempts to bolster confidence in the US economy among lower- and middle-income voters, who tend to decide political outcomes, are so far failing to improve the GOP’s prospects this November. Meanwhile, the stakes are high, as the White House will struggle to get legislation passed in a split Congress. Still, the Republicans are sustaining their probabilistic advantage in the Senate, which stands at 62%.
Participants Were Optimistic About Thursday’s US Data
On Wednesday, expectations for the following days unemployment claims and Weekly Economic Index signaled optimism about the near-term health of the cycle. Indeed, numbers around 212k priced in for initial jobless application and approximately 2.53% for the Dallas Fed’s gauge of activity momentum illustrate that platform participants anticipate a 2026 reacceleration and ongoing corporate earnings expansions. The projections, if sustained for extended durations, especially bode well for the areas in the market that are increasingly sensitive to changes in household spending power, like financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, materials and energy.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 25, 2026. Time until market close is also as of the morning of Feb. 25, 2026.
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