The week in review
- 119k jobs were added in September
- Wages grew 0.2% m/m (3.8% y/y) in September
The week ahead
- Consumer confidence
- 3Q25 GDP (2nd estimate)
- PCE
Thought of the Week
Last week marked the first full week since the government reopened, allowing for the release of old and new economic data. The latest figures underscored an important trend: Slack in the labor market is on the rise.
It is helpful to examine three key indicators of labor market slack—the unemployment rate, jobs hard to get minus jobs plentiful and continuing claims—as shown in this week’s chart. In September, although we just received the data this past Thursday, the unemployment rate rose 12bps from 4.32% to 4.44%, a four-year high. Turning to the Conference Board’s October Consumer Survey, while 18.4% of respondents saw jobs as “hard to get” compared to 27.8% who saw them as “plentiful,” the gap was the second smallest since March 2021. Meanwhile, although initial unemployment claims remain relatively stable in the most recent week, continuing claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 1,974,000 for the week ending November 8—a new cycle high.
While FOMC member commentary had grown more hawkish in recent weeks, dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams caused market expectations for a December cut to jump back to 65%, helping equities bounce higher on Friday, following losses in recent weeks. However, history suggests that when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic weakness, it does little to help the economy or bolster the stock market. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to growing labor market slack as a potential threat to both the economic expansion and the very strong stock market gains of recent years.
Chart of the Week: BLS, Conference Board, U.S. Department of Labor,
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Indices show z-scores of the
following measures of labor market slack: Unemployment rate, jobs
hard to get minus jobs plentiful, and continuing unemployment
insurance claims.
Thought of the week: BLS, Conference Board, U.S. Department of
Labor, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
—
Originally Posted November 24, 2025 – Weekly Market Recap
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