Weekly Market Recap: Week of June 15, 2026

The week in review

• Headline CPI accelerated, rising 4.2 y/y
• Core CPI ticked higher to 2.9% Initial claims increased to 229k

The week ahead

• FOMC
• Retail sales
• Housing starts

Thought of the Week

The world faces the biggest oil-supply shock on record, yet, barring a brief initial spike, oil prices have stayed contained, averaging around $90/bbl so far this month.

This week’s chart shows why. The disruption has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day (mbd) of Middle East crude and product supply, but the market has offset those losses through four channels. First, workaround barrels: Gulf producers have rerouted flows through pipelines, while clandestine flows through the Strait have picked up. Together, these have bridged around a third of the gap. Second, demand destruction, led by the Middle East and Southeast Asia, has saved barrels but weighed on activity. However, in the U.S., demand has barely flinched, underscoring how inelastic oil demand is at home. Third, China has cut imports, largely by pausing its stockpiling, leaving scarce barrels for other buyers. Fourth, inventories are increasingly doing the heavy lifting. Global drawdowns have accelerated from 4 mbd in March to 6.1 in May.

All this has brought calm to the market, with the prompt-delivery premium over futures narrowing to $2 from a record $36 in early April. More recently, prospects of an imminent deal have eased price pressure even further. A deal, however, would only slow the inventory draws rather than end them, as restoring supply to pre-war levels could take months. On the other hand, no deal would mean drawdowns continue at the current pace, and the U.S., which has already released 66 of its 172 million committed SPR barrels, would see reserves hit 1983 levels by mid-September, leaving little firepower to cushion prices. Either way, risks remain, and the clock is ticking, even if the sound of it has faded.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chart of the Week: Source: EIA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research,
Rystad, S&P Global AltView, S&P Global Energy, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management.
Thought of the week: Source: EIA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Commodities
Research, Rystad, S&P Global AltView, S&P Global Energy, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management.

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Originally Posted June 15, 2026 – Weekly Market Recap

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