Arbitrage opportunities can present themselves when different markets offer divergent prices of potential outcomes of events occurring. In the case of BlackRock executive Rick Rieder being nominated as Fed chair, distinct venues offer variable probabilities as to his chances of President Trump choosing him for the position. Against this backdrop, the ForecastTrader platform has former central bank Governor Kevin Warsh in the lead at 30% while Rieder is at 20%. The only other candidate with a double-digit possibility is current Governor Christopher Waller who is at 10%.
Claims Have Been Low Lately
The last four weeks of initial unemployment claims have featured figures of 200k, 207k, 199k and 200k, substantially beneath the 52-week average of 225k. Filings are likely to drift north toward the annual mean once the December and January holiday effects are behind us as is typical in the post-pandemic era, however, participants on Wednesday had priced a figure below 210k in the Thursday, Jan. 29 print with a 59% degree of certainty. Meanwhile, we’ve only failed to exceed 190k one time in the past six years and in just 33 occurrences in the 3,081 observations going all the way back to 1967.
WEI Update
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has failed to come in north of 2.4% in 12 of the past 14 weeks, which features an average reading of 2.23%. Against that backdrop, the “No” at 2.4% was priced for $0.57 on Wednesday.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 28, 2026. Tim market close is also as of Jan. 28, 20266. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight “Yes” answers throughout different levels.
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