Opinions and Expectations for Econ Data Expiring Tomorrow: Jan. 21, 2026

On Wednesday, economists anticipated that the Thursday release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October would show a 2.7% increase. Of the various IBKR ForcastTrader contracts addressing this topic, the instrument with “Yes” at 2.5% was priced at $0.89. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arrive at a figure that low.

Hong Kong CPI Expected at 1.2%, But Its Historically Volatile

Even though none of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll envision a number of 1.5% or higher for the Thursday Hong Kong Consumer Price Index release (they’re between 1.1% and 1.4%), this indicator has been historically volatile. As of Wednesday, of the various contracts focused on this release, “Yes” at 1.4% was priced at $0.05. 

US Growth Expectations Are Strong

The 13-week moving average of the Dallas Fed’s Economic Index has been running at 2.23% but ForecastTrader participants think there’s a good chance that this year will feature a reacceleration in growth after last week’s strong 2.43% reading. Indeed, for Thursday’s result, investors on Wednesday had priced in 43% odds of a number north of 2.4%, which would mark the second print in a row above that threshold, which is a pretty tall bar.

Claims Have Been All Over the Place

Initial US unemployment claims have been all over the place lately, as is typical surrounding holiday months. Emblematic of the volatility were the last three months serving numbers as high as 237k for the week ended Dec. 6 or as low as 192k for the seven-day period culminating on Nov. 29.

Can Canada New Homes Come in Positive?

Canada’s New Housing Price Index hasn’t come in positive since February, but ForecastTrader investors see a path back to growth in December. Indeed, the “Yes” at -0.1% signaled Wednesday afternoon  61% odds of a figure landing at 0 or above.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 21, 2026. Contract time until market close is also as of Jan. 21, 2026.

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