Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hasset Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025

An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on December 13 and 14. Some of the instruments with the most engagement were the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Bank of Japan’s decision on Thursday’s and rate verdicts from the Federal Reserve in 2026.

Fed Chair Odds: Hassett at 43%, Warsh at 41%

Worries from Washington officials that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is too close to President Trump and the contender’s constant mentions of the need for an apolitical, independent central bank whose decisions aren’t influenced by the White House have plunged his chances from 90% on Dec. 3 to 43% as of Monday. Meanwhile, the commander in chief mentioning that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is at the top spot has lifted his probability from 9% on Dec. 9 to a high of 43% on Friday. Approximately 41k contracts are open tied to the nomination.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gasoline Prices Plunged Again Last Week

Gasoline futures prices plunged last week, indicating an abundant supply environment. But sometimes those decreases aren’t immediately felt in retail costs, which are less volatile and respond in a slower way. The previous two weeks featured plunges from $3.061 to $2.985 and then to $2.94, and against that backdrop, I believe the “Yes” contract at $2.90 is undervalued at $0.10 for this week’s print. Indeed, I think the price should be closer to $0.25, in response to retailers looking to sustain pricing power following two consecutive weeks with sharp drops.

New Residential Construction Expectations

Expectations for November building permits and housing starts are near consensus estimates, with the former sporting odds of 59% of a number north of 1.3 million amidst a 69% probability of a figure south of 1.351 million. Similarly, the latter prices a 53% chance of a result exceeding 1.3 million as of Monday and an 82% likelihood that the print won’t come in above 1.4 million. The market’s projections are at 1.34 million and 1.32 million, respectively.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 15, 2025. Time to expiration is also as of morning of Dec. 15

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