Stocks Soar to New Records on Jobs Friday, Even as The Numbers Aren’t Released: Oct. 3, 2025

Animal spirits are thriving to end the week as participants look to AI to bolster bullish winds in light of the suspension of government economic figures resulting from the shutdown. Jobs Friday is usually all about nonfarm payrolls, but investor sentiment is being bolstered by news that BlackRock is in advanced negotiations with Aligned Data Centers in a potential deal that values the technology firm at $40 billion. Additionally, speculation that OPEC+ will raise output levels in an effort to gain market share has crude oil trading at its lowest level since May and serving to lighten inflation expectations which in turn, support elevated equity valuations. Meanwhile, a downside miss on ISM-Services, which signaled decelerating demand, headcount reductions, softening production and firmer price pressures, went largely ignored, with risk assets actually gaining steam following the print.

Stocks are green across the board with every major domestic benchmark, sector and sub-components advancing on the session. The commodity complex ex energy, bitcoin and forecast contracts are also seeing strong purchasing activity. Treasuries and the greenback are near their flatlines, however, as the absence of critical employment numbers has fixed income and currency watchers snoring.

ISM Services Report Disappoints

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a four-month low in its Purchasing Managers’ Index for services this morning. The headline result sank to the contraction-expansion threshold of 50, the weakest figure since May’s 49.9. The number missed the median estimate of 51.7 and retreated from August’s 52. The export, employment, backlog, inventory and production categories, with depressed scores of 46.5, 47.2, 47.3, 47.8 and 49.9, weighed on the publication’s results. Additionally, new orders decelerated sharply, falling from 56 to 50.4, while prices accelerated modestly from 69.2 to 69.4. Hiring, meanwhile, has been constrained by the quality of prospective workers and firms exercising caution with headcount increases.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

No Progress on Shutdown

The government shutdown appears far from over with Washington negotiations producing no progress. The longer the resulting funding lapse ensues, the greater the pressure will mount for Republicans and Democrats to find middle ground. An augmented closure generates delays in services, uncertainty regarding paychecks and a lack of clarity on the economic outlook. On the one hand, consumer outlays are adversely affected by federal employees curtailing their expenditures due to an absence of income, while on the other, investors and central bankers alike don’t have access to the timely release of critical data that support investment choices and monetary policy decisions. Furthermore, the outcomes of elected officials grappling are likely to shape the results of next year’s midterms. The GOP is poised to point the finger across the aisle in light of the disruption to the buoyant landscape, while the Democrats will probably lean on Medicaid cuts and the expiration of health insurance subsidies as justifications for why they deserve a majority.  

International Roundup

Japan’s Unemployment Rate Climbs

Japan’s unemployment rate climbed from 2.3% in July to 2.6% in August with the number of individuals absent from payrolls increasing year over year (y/y) for the first time in 13 months, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. During the month, 1.82 million individuals were out or work, representing a y/y increase of 70k. The unemployment rate surpassed the economist consensus estimate of 2.4% and is the highest since August 2024 when the metric was at 2.7%.

Japan Labor Market is Still Tight

The Ministry of Internal Affairs also reported that the country has 1.2 job openings for every individual seeking employment, which illustrates that the country continues to struggle with a labor shortage despite the statistic hitting its lowest level in nearly three years. Economists expected the report to show no change from July when 1.22 openings jobs were available for every job seeker.

Industrial Producer Prices Fall in Europe

Industrial prices among countries that use the euro sank 0.3% month over month (m/m) and 0.6% y/y during August, according to the Producer Price Index. Economists expected declines of 0.1% and 0.4% following July’s 0.3% and 0.2% increases. In August, energy prices slipped the most, falling 1.3%, according to Eurostat. Prices in other major categories all retreated 0.1%.

Singapore Retail Sales Grew in August

Retail sales in Singapore during August were up 0.5% m/m, considerably weaker than the 3.9% m/m July gain. The 5.2% y/y boost in sales, however, was stronger than July’s 4.6% expansion. Furniture and household equipment led with an 8.3% m/m jump followed by the recreation goods category and the apparel and footwear group with gains of 6.7% and 5.7%, respectively. Conversely, department stores experienced an 11.6% hit followed by the 4.4% drop in motor vehicles sales. The computer and telecommunications equipment classification, furthermore, slipped 3.3%.