Hasset’s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025

News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets on Tuesday, as it was unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential candidates. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still the heavy favorite at 72% as of Wednesday, although his odds have been trending south. Emblematic of his narrowing lead are odds that were at 80% on Dec. 9 and 90% on Dec. 3. Part of the decrease can be attributed to Hassett stating that he wouldn’t bow to pressure from the White House to reduce rates and would instead rely on his own judgement. But Hassett balanced that declaration by saying that there’s plenty of room to cut, effectively serving dovish remarks signaling a preference for additional accommodation that President Trump would certainly support. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s likelihood jumped from 9% yesterday to 16% on Wednesday, since the commander in chief is beginning the talks with him. Prospects amongst the others were relatively flat since there wasn’t a reason to believe that their chances have improved. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman remain below 5%, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is at 6%. There are approximately 26k contracts open that are tied to the nomination.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Claims Could Stay Volatile

Last week’s reported plunge in US initial unemployment claims led to the lowest reading in 38 months, or since September 2022. But although consensus expectations project a 220k in Thursday’s print, this time of year typically offers volatility for this specific indicator. The trend in recent periods is that filings are increasingly subdued during the holidays. The IBKR ForecastTrade platform has contracts with initial unemployment claim thresholds ranging from above 190k to above 240k.  

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

US Weekly Economic Indicator Could Accelerate

The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index hasn’t exceeded 2.4% since the week of October 11, but on Wednesday there was a 20% chance according to our prediction market that it’ll climb above that level in tomorrow’s print. If an acceleration were to occur, that would be great news for growth trends and corporate earnings prospects, especially on the heels of a projected rate cut in the prior day that is poised to add further fuel to the fire. The recent reopening of the government also offers a short-term cyclical tailwind that could motivate “Yes” contract buying here.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 10, 2025, New York time. Time to expiration is also as of Dec. 10, 2025. . 

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