Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls Was Expected Around 73K: May 7, 2026

Investors on Thursday anticipated that the week would end with the US release of nonfarm payroll data showing April payroll additions of around 73k workers, according to pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market. The result would be a deceleration from March’s 178k. Indeed, the 50k “Yes” was priced at $0.69 while the 100k and 150k “Nos” were  offered at $0.64 and $0.85. Participants have been attentive to alternative labor numbers on the economic calendar that have generally signaled healthy conditions conducive to ongoing headcount expansions. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters carried a median of 62k as of Thursday and minimum and maximum projections of 62k and 150k.

Unemployment Expected Steady

Also on Thursday, the US unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market saw a 64% chance of a number ahead of 4.2% as well as 96% and 95% probabilities of a figure of 4.1% or higher or a statistic less than or equal to 4.4%. The monthly Reuters poll of 67 forecasters envisioned a narrow range of potential outcomes, too, in light of the indicator’s lack of deviation, with a median of 4.3% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 4.2% and 4.4%.

Canada Unemployment Projected At 6.6%

The Canadian unemployment rate is much more volatile than the American one, and pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Thursday reflected that reality. The “No” at the 6.6% threshold was priced at $0.57, while the “Yes” at 6.4% and the “No” at 6.8% were going for $0.90 and $0.80 after March’s figure came in at 6.7%. But despite the datapoint’s wild swings in recent years, the monthly Reuters poll of 16 forecasters was pretty narrow, as a median estimate of 6.7% on Thursday contended with minimum and maximum entries of 6.6% and 6.8%.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 7, 2026. Time until market closure was also as of the morning of May 7, 2026.

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