Forecast trading from Friday, Jan 23 through Monday, Jan. 26 featured forecasters engaging with a wide range of topics. North of 6 million contracts were traded collectively and the daily high temperatures across US cities continued to comprise a substantial share of total volumes, with New York City and San Francisco especially popular on Monday.
Fed Largely Expected to Hold with Dissents
On Monday, there was nearly a 100% chance that the Fed will hold rates this Wednesday and that there will be formal disagreement across the committee. Investors have also been entering and exiting positions in US central bank related contracts with heavy volumes recently as the event approaches.
Gasoline Prices Likely Rose Last Week
Prices from the crude oil and natural gas futures markets signal that retail costs at the pump likely climbed notably last week, since they’re tightly correlated. The “Yes” at $2.80 appears undervalued at $0.89, since the indicator has probably risen from the $2.81 reported for the period ended 7 days ago and the chance that it has declined from that level is less than 5% in my opinion.
Source for image: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 26, 2026. Time to contract closing is also as of the morning of Jan. 26, 2026.
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