On Tuesday, IBKR ForecastTrader participants generally anticipated that the subsequent day’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) would have a headline of 2.4% and a core result of 2.5%. Pricing across contracts in the former category signaled 94%, 76%, 45% and 10% probabilities of results exceeding 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4% and 2.5% and conversely, there were 88%, 53% 22% and 4% likelihoods that the statistics would not arrive over 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.3% and 2.2%. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 49 forecasters has a median of 2.4% amidst minimum and maximum values of 2.3% and 2.6%.
Core Expected a Little higher Though
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is priced a little higher than the headline figure, with the “Yeses” at 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.6% at 87%, 66%, 32% and 14%. On the other hand, the “Nos” at 2.6%, 2.5%, 2.4% and 2.3% are going for 84%, 66%, 32% and 11%. The monthly Reuters poll of 48 forecasters has a median estimate of 2.5% against the backdrop of a 2.4% minimum and 2.7% maximum.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 10, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of March 10, 2026.
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