Forecasters on Wednesday anticipated that solid US economic data would be released the following day with initial unemployment claims, the weekly economic index and industrial production on the calendar. For initial claims, there was a 59% chance of a number north of 210k and 73% odds of a result coming in beneath 221k. Over and under, there was a 10% probability of a statistic failing to exceed 200k and a 10% likelihood of a print arriving ahead of 230k. The contract pricing on Wednesday signaled continued confidence of subdued layoffs and stable labor conditions by participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, which is generally in-line with economist consensus estimates for this specific indicator.
Weekly Economic Index to Reflect Buoyancy
The Dallas Fed’s weekly economic index was projected to reflect continued buoyancy when released on Thursday with a 37% chance of a number north of 2.8%, a feat that was conquered in two out of the past four weeks. Meanwhile, predictive contracts pointed to a 71% likelihood of a figure arriving ahead of 2.6% and 79% odds of a statistic coming in south of 3.1%. Overall, growth rates near 2.7% are terrific and signal confidence by Interactive Brokers prediction market participants of the ongoing resilience of the US economy.
Industrial Production to Accelerate
Also on Wednesday, pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market regarding Thursday’s industrial production release pointed to an extended expansion in the manufacturing sector, as the space is benefiting from last year’s passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and its associated capital expenditure investment incentives. The 1.1% “Yes” on Wednesday was priced at $0.85 while the 2.1% “No” is offered at $0.84, which placed the projection near the economist consensus estimate of 1.6%, marking a probable acceleration from the prior print’s 1.4%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 15, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of the morning of April 15, 2026.
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