Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Wednesday expected US layoffs to remain contained in Thursday’s initial unemployment claims report. Participants projected a number between 210k and 220k, generally speaking, as the “Yes” on the former was priced at $0.68 while the “No” on the latter was priced at $0.69. There was some activity at the lower and upper thresholds as well, with a 7% chance of a figure failing to exceed 200k as well as a 10% probability of a statistic arriving north of 230k. Meanwhile, this week’s Reuters poll consisting of 33 economic prognosticators carried a median estimate of 215k alongside minimum and maximum values of 210k and 245k.
ECB Was Expect To Pause
Also on Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) was expected to leave rates unchanged during its meeting on the subsequent day with a 97% degree of confidence; however, the committee is growing wary of the spike in energy costs. Indeed, Euro fixed-income watchers are now pricing in approximately two 25-basis point hikes this year as the continent is increasingly vulnerable to surging oil prices since it’s a major importer of crude.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 18, 2026.
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