Forecasters Expected 50K, 4.3% Results for US Jobs Friday: March 5, 2026

As of Thursday, Forecasters engaging with the Interactive Brokers prediction markets priced a 50% chance of a number above 50k in the subsequent day’s nonfarm payrolls. Additionally, there was a 17% probability of a result ahead of 100k, and 7% and 5% likelihoods of the headline failing to exceed 0 or -50k.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unemployment Rate of 4.3% Expected

Similarly, there was a 49% likelihood on Thursday of a figure north of 4.3% for the unemployment rate, released in the same report.  Across other thresholds, meanwhile, there was a 15% probability of a result arriving ahead of 4.4%, while there were 24% and 6% chances of figures that don’t exceed 4.2% or 4.1%, respectively. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March. 5, 2026. Time till market closing is also as of March 5, 2026.

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