Spain’s final December Consumer Price Index scheduled for Thursday, Jan. 15 comes 15 days after the flash initial reading. Based on the preliminary numbers, the value was likely to arrive right around 119.9 in light of 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year increases. On Wednesday night, IBKR ForecastTrader participants anticipated a 69% likelihood that the result would exceed 119.5.
Initial Claims in Dec., Jan., Can Be Volatile
Wall Street’s median expectation for Thursday initial unemployment claims was 215k, but the actual reading can deviate significantly around this time of year due to holiday effects and difficulties seasonally adjusting. In light of the historic volatility, the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 26 forecasters had a minimum forecast of 205k and a maximum of 235k. And in our prediction market, there was a 63% chance of a figure exceeding 210k and an 11% likelihood of a number arriving ahead of 230k.
Bank of Korea to Hold
On Wednesday morning, the Bank of Korea was widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting as above-target inflation influenced by the nation’s overreliance on cross-border commerce and a volatile currency as a result compel monetary policy officials in Seoul to remain on the safe side. Our participants priced the chances of a hold at 94%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 14, 2026. Contract time until expiration is also as of Jan. 14, 2026. 6.
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