Forecast expectations on Tuesdays for the following day’s nonfarm payrolls print signaled a 55% probability of a figure north of 50k, but there was a wide range of possible outcomes when looking at estimates throughout Wall Street. The median estimate was 70k across the 75 economists in the monthly Reuters poll, which would be the strongest since September, although a few penciled in some surprises with the minimum and maximum values hovering at -10k and 135k. Meanwhile, participants in the IBKR prediction market priced out a 93% chance for a number above -50k.
Unemployment Is More Predictable
The unemployment rate is more predictable because it has a subdued deviation history relative to its nonfarm payrolls counterpart which is released in the same publication. The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday generally expected a figure between 4.3% and 4.5% and similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 74 forecasters carried a median of 4.4% amidst minimums and maximums at 4.3% and 4.5%. The probabilities in ForecastTrader of a number exceeding 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5% were at 93%, 69%, 34% and 15% Tuesday morning.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 10, 2026. Time until market close is also as of Feb. 10, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here.
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account