The IBKR ForecastTrader platform is expecting economic growth in the current quarter to be much weaker than it was earlier in the year, as a softening consumer, volatility in markets and the 42-day long government shutdown—the longest in history—dents GDP. Indeed, the 50-50 level for the October-December time period of only around 0.8%, as participants assign a 55% chance of a number north of 0.5% and a 52% probability of a figure failing to exceed 1%. Additionally, there’s a 35% chance that the result won’t exceed 0%. For comparison purposes and to illustrate the degree of the projected deceleration, the second quarter yielded a 3.8% pace of advancement and the third quarter is expected to come in above 3.1% with a 56% degree of confidence.
A Look At 3rd Quarter Expectations
Folks Give Up On a 50 From the Fed
In recent sessions we’ve seen large trades executed on whether the Fed will reduce rates by 50 basis points or more at its December meeting. With the committee contemplating a pause or a modest cut, folks have essentially given up on a super-sized reduction. There are roughly 81k contracts open that are tied to next month’s decision.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 18, 2025. To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
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