News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next. Since Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the monetary policy institution, his probability dropped from 44% to 38% over the weekend, as he’s potentially seen as a fellow that may defend Fed independence and at times stand at conflict with the head of state. Participants may believe that the other Kevin, meanwhile, Hasset, who has never maintained a political appointment at the Fed and is more distant as Director of the National Economic Council, has a stronger chance of securing the spot in light of the perception that the commander in chief is looking to increasingly influence the organization’s decisions and could choose someone with a higher likelihood of considering his suggestions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
CPI Estimates Are All Over the Place
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 12, had potentially to come in significantly different than Wall Street’s projections because of adverse impacts from the government shutdown ,which influenced how shelter was measured. The component is the heaviest weighting in the pivotal economic indicator at north of 40% and how it’s handled in the Tuesday was a critical question that economists carefully pondered on Monday. It’s absolutely that development that had estimates sitting all over the place, with the 41 professional forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll at a minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 2.9%. This is rare for a gauge that is usually well telegraphed by prognosticators and has a narrower historical width amongst analysts.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 12, 2026. Time to expiration was also as of the morning of Jan. 12, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here.
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account