On Thursday, investors anticipated that the following day’s US nonfarm payrolls report would reflect ongoing cyclical strength amidst subdued joblessness. Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market pointed to a number around 98k as the most likely May figure, as the “No” contracts at the 50k, 100k and 150k thresholds were priced at $0.29, $0.51 and $0.85. The anticipated statistic would be a modest slowdown from April’s 115k, and the path to a sizeable beat didn’t appear to be in the cards when examining the range of the economist consensus forecasts. Indeed, the 85k median estimate across the 70 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll carried minimum and maximum projections of 50k and 125k as of Thursday. Still, this indicator sustains an elevated deviation rate, meaning that its historical tendencies include the potential to surprise significantly.
US Unemployment To Remain at 4.3%
The unemployment rate published in the same report is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, as the “Yeses” at 4.2% and 4.3% were priced at $0.70 and $0.33 within the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Thursday. Meanwhile, there was just a 6% chance of a result exceeding 4.4%. The 70 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll also pointed to a narrow range of potential outcomes, with 4.2% and 4.4% serving as the minimum and maximum entries.
Canada’s Unemployment Is Volatile
Canada’s jobs report, also scheduled for Friday, includes an unemployment rate with higher historical volatility than its southern neighbor. Indeed, the potential for an unexpected result closely mirrors the US payrolls print, which has posted significant surprises more often than average. The consensus estimate from the Reuters poll of 70 forecasters stands at 6.9%, which would be unchanged from April amidst minimum and maximum expectations of 6.8% and 7%. The Interactive Brokers prediction market on Thursday became increasingly open minded regarding a potential downside miss, however, with the “Yeses” at 6.5%, 6.6%, 6.7% and 6.8% costing $0.84, $0.76, $0.57 and $0.39. The “Yes” at 6.9% was price for just $0.21, meanwhile.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 4, 2026.
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