Wednesday’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to be 1.7% on the night before the publication’s release, which would be significantly below the European Central Bank’s 2% target by a substantial margin, potentially opening the door to a resumption in the institution’s cutting cycle. Many economists and investors believed that the easing process was over. But the range of possible outcomes for this specific report was particularly wide on Tuesday, Jan. 3, as the monthly Reuters poll of 45 forecasters was characterized by a minimum of 1.5% and a maximum of 2.1%. Still, this indicator rarely misses the median by more than 0.1% so it was expected to land between 1.6% and 1.8% in light of its historical tendencies. Against this backdrop, the “Nos” answers contracts asking if the gauge would exceed 2% and 2.2% were priced at $0.72 and $0.95 on the eve of the publication’s release
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 3, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of the morning of Feb. 3, 2026. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight “No” answers throughout different levels.
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