After 3 Straight Weeks Under 210K, Consider the “No” Contract at $0.66 for This Thursday: Aug. 4, 2026

US initial unemployment claims have been below 210k for three consecutive weeks as labor conditions continue to show impressive stability. On Tuesday, forecasters expected that this Thursday’s headline would mark the fourth straight week below the 210k level, as none of the 33 individuals in a Reuters poll envisioned a number above that threshold. Indeed, the median estimate was 202k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 192k and 210k. Also on Tuesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the 210k “No” contract at what I consider to be an undervalued $0.66, since it should cost $0.83, in my opinion. The contract would deliver $1.00 back to investors on any result beneath 211k. Under, the “Nos” at 200k and 190k were priced at $0.32 and $0.10.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 4, 2026. 

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