On Thursday, investors were eager to see how the following day’s US Jobs Friday report depicted hiring momentum, payroll expansion appetites, sectoral performances, paycheck growth and the unemployment rate, which is one of the indicators with the strongest liquidity within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. This means that it’s generally easier for investors to place large trades without compromising on price, as spreads are tighter than the overall average amidst sizeable market-maker bids on both sides. Traders on Thursday assigned a 72% chance that joblessness would hold steady at 4.1% or jump higher, as the 4% “Yes” was priced at $0.72. Over and under, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 3.8% and 4.2% were going for $0.97 and $0.06. Economist perceptions indicated a narrow range of potential outcomes, as the monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters on Thursday stood at a median of 4.1% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum entries of 4% and 4.2%.
Past Performance is not indicative of future performance.
“Yeses” Appeared Cheap For Euro CPI
The median estimate for the Friday release of the Euro Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.6% on Thursday yet the 3.5% “Yes” contract was going for just $0.30, which was potentially undervalued in my opinion. Indeed, a CPI number in-line with projections or over on Friday would result in the contract paying $1.00 and this indicator generally has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it doesn’t typically surprise because it’s well telegraphed by economists. But in all fairness, there was a wide range of potential outcomes as of Thursday, as the Reuters poll of 46 forecasters had estimates ranging 3.3% up to a maximum of 3.9%. Other available thresholds in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, such as the “Yeses” at 3.4% and 3.2%, were being offered at $0.51 and $0.87 on Thursday.
Past Performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 1, 2026.
Learn more about ForecastEx here.
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
New to Prediction Markets?
Open a Prediction Markets AccountDisclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account