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50K House Majority Block Trade Executes Yon Friday: Dec. 5, 2025

50K House Majority Block Trade Executes Yon Friday: Dec. 5, 2025

Posted December 8, 2025 at 11:22 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Volumes on the ForecastEx platform continue to trend north, with Thursday’s total number of transactions coming in at 3.03 million. The top single pairing on Dec. 4 was an exchange of 50k contracts featuring a buyer of a “Yes” at $0.73 and a separate purchaser of a “No” at $0.28 regarding US political elections. The block trade executed at 10:12 am ET. Meanwhile, the other themes with heavy interest didn’t surprise, as participants continued to engage with popular contracts, including daily high and low temperatures across US cities.

Forecast Contract - Will the highest temperature in Austin exceed 55 F on December 5, 2025?

Forecast Contract - Will the fed lower the rate 25bps in December 2025?

US Consumer Sentiment

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment result came in at 53.3 on Friday. ForecastEx currently offers contracts for the final report with thresholds that range from above 45 to above 71.

Forecast Contract - Will the US consumer Sentiment  exceed 55 in December 2025?

Forecast Contract - US Consumer Sentiment.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Upcoming Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Release

The government’s reopening and lightening inflation expectations likely drove an increase in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index later in the month too. The ForecastEx platform currently has contracts for this release with thresholds that range from above 80 to above 108.

Forecast Contract - Will the US Consumer Confidence Index be above 88 in December 2025?

 
Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 5, 2025. Dates until expiration are also as of the morning of Dec. 5.

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Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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