On Thursday, Canada’s Jobs Friday report was expected to show a slight increase in unemployment but to a level consistent with a healthy labor cycle and to the exact 6.5% level in January. Additionally, despite the projected lift, it was expected to remain below 6.7% from February and March, 6.9% from April and 6.6% from May. Meanwhile, all of the 17 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll had entered an estimate of either 6.4% or 6.5%, indicating a narrow range of anticipated results. And in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, this indicator gained steam from volume, open interest and bid-size perspectives, as market-makers and liquidity providers had increased their participation, raising the likelihood of large, price-sensitive limit orders being filled on both the “Yes” and “No” sides. Against this backdrop, the “Yeses” at 6.2%, 6.4% and 6.6% on Thursday were priced at $0.92, $0.56 and $0.15.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Consumer Sentiment To Remain Sour
Also on Thursday, pain at the pump, elevated inflation, lofty interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty were expected to produce another weak US consumer sentiment print when released the following day. September’s 48.1, near record lows, was expected to decline to 47.8 in the preliminary update, according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 38 forecasters. The minimum and maximum projections as of Thursday were 44.5 and 49, meanwhile. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the indicator settles upon the release of the final statistic, 15 days from today, and the “Yeses” at 44, 46, 48, 50 and 52 on Thursday were going for $0.93, $0.73, $0.62, $0.37 and $0.06. Typically the flash and revised results are in the same ballpark, usually within plus or minus 1.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 8, 2026.
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