The Thursday released of the August US New Home Sales report was expected to show activity recovering from July’s 607k, as the “No” Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold was priced at just $0.20 on Wednesday. The Reuters poll of 43 forecasters as of Wednesday also anticipated a rebound, as the consensus was 615k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 575k and 666k. But recent indicators have shown a great deal of real estate weakness because elevated mortgage rates alongside lofty valuations have worsened a significant affordability problem. And due to the softening trends, on Wednesday, I believed a number under the 600k threshold was likely. That would be the weakest figure since January’s 576k. Furthermore, the “No” at 600k was undervalued in my view, as it should have been priced closer to $0.40. Meanwhile, the “No” at 650k was going for $0.82. Separately, the median sales price was projected to land right around $400k, as the “Yeses” at $390k, $400k and $410k were at $0.83, $0.51 and $0.30 for that distinct contract in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Initial Unemployment Claims Expected Around 200K
Also on Wednesday, initial unemployment claims were expected to remain suppressed as layoff appetites are low and economic growth is buoyant, warranting headcount increases rather than declines. After coming in at 196k last week, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets on Wednesday were pricing in the at least “Yeses” at 190k, 195k, 200k, 205k and 210k at $0.89, $0.58, $0.50, $0.16 and $0.03. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 36 forecasters stands at a median of 201k, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 185k and 250k. Indeed, someone is anticipated a substantial increase to a level we haven’t touched in over a year.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 23, 2026.
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