US gasoline prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks by an average of $0.096 as the reopened Strait of Hormuz has brought down the cost of crude oil. But charges at the pump respond with a lag at the retail level and the sharp decline we’ve seen in the commodity has yet to fully materialize for retail customers. Meanwhile, this week’s $3.831 per gallon reading is poised to post a significant decrease to around $3.74 on July 6, in my opinion, and against that backdrop on Thursday, July 2, I believed the “No” contracts were undervalued at $3.90, $3.85, $3.80 and $3.75; they were priced at $0.95, $0.83, $0.69 and $0.13. Finally, when West Texas Intermediate is in the 60s, where it is now, gas prices per gallon are typically in the high 2s to low 3s, signaling a continued plunge.
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Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 2, 2026.
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Subject: Fed rate hike expectations fall after this morning’s payroll miss
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