The University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8 last month and on Thursday, the day before the preliminary June version was to be released, a sharp recovery wasn’t expected. Many of the struggles from the prior report still exist, namely the Middle East conflict leading to pain at the pump and geopolitical anxiety, elevated inflation, sluggish paycheck increases and high mortgage rates. Against this backdrop, the median estimate in the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters as of Thursday was 46 amidst minimum and maximum projections of 42 and 48.5.
Meanwhile the “Nos” at 48 and at 50 were going for what I considered to be undervalued prices of $0.17 and $0.47. The trades would be profitable on a number equal to or less than 48 in the former case, or 50 in the latter example. While the preliminary print is due on Friday, this contract settles upon release of the final publication on June 26. Historically, revisions have averaged a change of around plus or minus 1.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Preliminary CPI At 124.9
Germany’s preliminary May Consumer Price Index (CPI) print was 124.9 and on Thursday, there was an expectation that the final result, to be published the following day, would arrive right around the same level. Indeed, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the 125 “Yes” at $0.16, implying just a 16% chance of a number of 125.1 or higher. Over and under, the 124 and 126 thresholds were out of reach with elevated degrees of certainty above 95%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Consider “Yeses” On India CPI
The monthly increase expected in India’s CPI was poised to deliver a number near 105.5, considering that April’s figure was at 105.1. But the “Yeses” at 104 and 105 on Thursday were going for undervalued prices of $0.93 and $0.81, in my opinion, requiring a May decline in inflation to potentially lose money. The path to a decrease as of Thursday was narrow, as heavier fuel costs likely pushed this gauge up meaningfully.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 11, 2026. Learn more about ForecastEx here
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