The China Containerized Freight Index on Thursday appeared almost certain to rise well above 1,200 and 1,250 when released on Friday, in my opinion, as the indicator’s leap in March and year-to-date had likely extended into this month in light of supply chain disruptions and climbing oil prices as a result of the Middle East conflict. The “Yeses” associated with those two thresholds are only going for $0.70 and $0.02 and offer a wide path for victory for investors that agree that the cost of transporting goods in Asia has gotten at least modestly more expensive.
UMich Revision for Friday
Prediction market participants on Wednesday who envisioned an upgrade to the University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index release on Friday had the option of the “Yeses” contract with a threshold of 48. The preliminary reading released a little under two weeks ago arrived at a record-low 47.6, and on Thursday, it appeared that a number above 48 was possible when considering the indicator’s revision history which frequently features edits ranging from +1 to -1. Against this backdrop the “Yeses” at 48 and at 50 are going for $0.27 and $0.09.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 23, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of the morning of April 23, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx here.
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account