National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset’s chances of being nominated as Fed Chair fell to a recent low of 9%, as investors digested President Trump’s comments on Friday in which the commander in chief suggested that he prefers him to remain in his ongoing role. As of Tuesday, former and current Fed governors Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller carried probabilities of 56% and 12%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Weekend Drama Didn’t Move Greenland US Odds Much
An eventful weekend in which President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on eight European nations if an agreement isn’t completed allowing the US to purchase Greenland didn’t move the odds much in our prediction market. Indeed, the probability of 40% on Tuesday as it relates to whether any portion of Greenland will become a US state, territory or federal jurisdiction by year-end 2028 remained below the all-time high of 51% reached last week on Jan. 16.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 20, 2026.
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