Just a 23% Chance That the Supreme Court Upholds Trump Tariffs: Jan. 8, 2026

There’s a heavy amount of pessimism concerning whether the US Supreme Court will uphold President Trump’s tariffs. The chances were a coin-flip prior to the Justice’s initial opinions, in which several conservative members questioned the commander in chief’s authority to implement broad-based levies on a plethora of nations. Following those developments, trading has been quite volatile, as odds rose to 34% on the day after Christmas before falling to 21% on Jan. 3 and then reaching a high of 31% on Jan. 8. The stakes are elevated as the nation’s highest court gears up for the decision, with the US collecting roughly $313 billion in duty revenues since the beginning of fiscal year 2025 through December. Indeed, a blockage would likely hamper onshoring ambitions, worsen the country’s budgetary health and send rates higher. Conversely, near-term corporate earnings would strengthen.

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Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 8, 2026. Time to expiration is also as of Jan. 8.

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