Last weekend’s volume on ForecastEx totaled 20.39 million as prediction market enthusiasts gravitated to daily high temperature contracts across US cities as well instruments connected to the prices of the Bitcoin and Solana cryptocurrencies. Monday morning’s trades of approximately 2.2 million contracts, additionally, featured the price of Ethereum on the list of 10k contracts or more being traded. Below, I describe ForecastEx contracts tied to industrial production, corporate profits and the Baltic Dry Index.
Industrial Production Mispricing
The low result from October 2024 and the associated expected increase in the Tuesday, Dec. 23, industrial production print signal a heavy likelihood that the publication will arrive north of 1%. As the release date approached, ForecastTrader participants had thresholds ranging from above -2.5% to above 1% to choose from.
Low “Yeses” Attractive on Corporate Profits
Corporate profits tend to loosely track gross domestic product (GDP) in the directional sense, meaning that earnings and the economy generally move north or south together. Tomorrow’s expectation of 3.2% on third-quarter GDP effectively means that corporate profits are very likely to come in positive. On Monday, ForecastTraders had the opportunity to select contracts with thresholds ranging from above -9.2% to above 8.8%.
Baltic Dry Index Likely to Continue Slipping
In another topic, contracts expire today regarding the Baltic Dry Index. For this topic, ForecastTrader participants could choose from contracts with thresholds ranging from 1,550 to 2,750.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 22, 2025. Time until contract expiration dates is also as of Dec. 22.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account