Odds of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve increased only marginally after Thursday’s September Jobs Report included the highest unemployment figure in 47 months. Recently, hawkish voices at the Fed have outnumbered the dovish ones, as the central bank appears increasingly unlikely to ease next month in light of 3% inflation and a level of joblessness that is still subdued, although it is rising. Indeed, the 25-basis point reduction “Yes” trade was priced as low as $0.25 after the report before increasing to $0.37 and then falling to $0.33 as of press time. Trading has been active, as approximately 95k contracts are open as it relates to the last monetary policy decision of the year.
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Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 20, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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