Briefing.com Summary:
* Annual Nonfarm Payroll revision coming up.
* Quiet on the data front (PPI tomorrow).
* Some political uncertainty abroad.
The stock market had a subdued start to the week on Monday, but the modest advance was good enough to lift the Nasdaq to a fresh record high. The Nasdaq could continue its foray into record territory today as equity futures point to a slightly higher start.
With the September 17 FOMC decision just over a week away, the market remains confident that a rate cut of at least 25-basis points will be announced next Wednesday. The market currently sees just a 9.9% implied likelihood of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool, but that probability could shift after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its annual set of revisions to nonfarm payroll figures for the twelve months ending in March. There is an expectation that the revision will result in lower average payroll growth, but the size of the revision will remain a mystery until 10:00 ET.
Today’s economic data was limited to an early-morning release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August (100.8; prior 100.3), which showed the third consecutive improvement in sentiment.
The data flow will remain light for the remainder of the week, but some noteworthy reports will be released in coming days with August PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.9%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.9%) set to be released tomorrow morning, followed by August CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) on Thursday.
Treasuries hold modest losses after four days of gains ahead of today’s $58 bln 3-yr note auction. Today’s pullback comes alongside selling in other sovereign debt while French bonds outperform as Prime Minister Bayrou is expected to resign after losing a confidence vote. This will prompt President Macron to name the third prime minister in just a year.
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Originally Posted September 9, 2025 – And the beat goes on
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