The equity futures market looks a lot like it is coming off a long holiday weekend and is in the midst of a popular vacation period: a little on the softer side.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 112 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up two points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
The underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 futures stems in large part from some weakness in the mega-cap space. Tesla (TSLA), down 6.5%, is a downside leader there, with Elon Musk announcing that he will be starting a new political party, the “America Party,” and The Wall Street Journal reporting that Tesla is facing added competition in China.
NVIDIA (NVDA) is also weaker, down 0.9% on some consolidation interest that has been influenced by a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is planning AI chip export restrictions on Thailand.
There will be ample attention on the administration’s trade dealings this week. Coming off the July 4 signing of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” into law, the administration will continue with its trade deal negotiations.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expects several big announcements this week but added that any country that has not struck a deal with the U.S. by August 1 will see tariff rates revert to the higher April level. Reportedly, several countries are getting such warning letters sent to them today.
There is a little trade uncertainty in the mix today, then, but it isn’t a stretch to think the market is also simply adhering to some consolidation interest after making such a massive run.
There isn’t any U.S. economic data of note today, and there won’t be much throughout the week, which will feature the release of the FOMC Minutes for the June 17-18 meeting on Wednesday and several Treasury auctions. There is a $58 billion 3-yr note auction on Tuesday, a $39 billion 10-yr note auction on Wednesday, and a $22 billion 30-yr bond auction on Thursday.
Treasuries are mixed this morning, with some modest steepening action on the curve. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.36%.
In other developments, OPEC+ agreed to raise its output in August by 548,000 barrels per day, up from the 411,000 barrels per day increase pursued in May, June, and July, according to Bloomberg. WTI crude futures are currently up 0.4% to $67.26 per barrel.
—
Originally Posted July 7, 2025 – A little on the softer side
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Third Party
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Options Trading
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. For information on the uses and risks of options read the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" also known as the options disclosure document (ODD). Multiple leg strategies, including spreads, will incur multiple transaction costs.
Disclosure: Bonds
As with all investments, your capital is at risk.
Disclosure: ETFs
Any discussion or mention of an ETF is not to be construed as recommendation, promotion or solicitation. All investors should review and consider associated investment risks, charges and expenses of the investment company or fund prior to investing. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account