With the Last 5 of 6 WEI Reports Below 3%, the “No” at that Threshold was $0.71: Aug. 5, 2026

The US Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) had averaged 2.69% across the past six prints, as of Wednesday and just one of those readings was above 3%. Furthermore, the 3% level had only been conquered once last year and four times year to date in 2026. Meanwhile, the three most recent releases as of Wednesday were all below 3% and sported a mean of 2.64%, while labor conditions, a critical variable in the indicator’s calculation, appeared to be decelerating. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday I believed the $0.71 “No” Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 3% threshold was undervalued as it should have cost closer to $0.87. Over and under, the “Nos” at 3.2%, 2.8%, 2.6% and 2.4% are going for $0.86, $0.53, $0.35 and $0.18.

past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 5, 2026. 

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