US Nonfarm Payrolls “Yeses” at 50k and 100k Were Priced at $0.74, $0.27: Aug. 6, 2026

On Thursday, the end-of-the-business week nonfarm payrolls report for the US was expected to reflect an acceleration after three consecutive months of slower hiring. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market anticipated around 75k additions as the “Yes” contracts with thresholds of 50k and 100k were going for $0.74 and $0.27. This indicator is volatile and carries an elevated deviation rate, however, and had potential to surprise, which is why the associated contracts signaled a wide range of potential outcomes. Indeed, over and under, the “Yeses” at 150k, 90k, 30k and 10k were priced $0.16, $0.33, $0.84 and $0.90. The monthly Reuters poll of 68 forecasters signaled a similar backdrop, as the median estimate was 80k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 10k and 140k. My estimate as of Thursday was well below consensus at 40k, as I believed labor supply constraints would continue to weigh on the headline result for the rest of the year and would generally favor the “Nos” here.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unemployment Expected Steady at 4.2%

The US unemployment rate as of Thursday was expected to remain steady as slower job growth has been coinciding with weaker participation that serves to neutralize the indicator. Of the 67 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the median estimate as of Thursday anticipated an unchanged 4.2% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.1% and 4.3%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market was in close alignment, meanwhile, as participants priced the “Yeses” at 4%, 4.2% and 4.4% at $0.92, $0.49 and $0.04.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Canada Unemployment “No” at 6.5%

The Canadian Jobs Report was also scheduled for Friday. In my view, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Thursday underestimated the potential for a slight decline. The consensus estimate anticipated a steady number of 6.5%, but a modest decrease to 6.4% was certainly possible because this indicator carries an elevated deviation rate and can surprise significantly in either direction. Despite the 6.4% level not being reached since July 2024, the “No” contract at that threshold was going for just $0.05 on Thursday. This price was undervalued in my opinion because a meager drop in the gauge to 6.4% or below would return $1.00 back to investors per contract; simply too cheap. Furthermore, of the 15 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum projection was 6.4%, indicating that other economists, like me, see a path to this lighter figure. Over, meanwhile, the “Nos” at 6.6% and 6.8% were at $0.93 and $0.96 on Thursday.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 6, 2026. 

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