Recent Middle East violence amidst ongoing geopolitical disagreements between the US and Iran is threatening to lift gasoline prices back to a 2026 high above $4.50 in the world’s largest economy. That peak was registered during the seven-day period that ended on May 11, and there’s an 11% chance that US consumers will face that intense level of pain at the pump as illustrated by Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contracts tied to the Sept.r 29 report. Indeed, the “Yes” corresponding to the $4.50 threshold on Tuesday was priced at $0.11, while contracts, the “Yes” contracts at $4.60, $4.40, $4.30, $4.20 and $4.10 were at $0.04, $0.14, $0.23, $0.39 and $0.70. Meanwhile, households are getting used to seeing a 4-handle when they’re filling up, as the last time we’ve seen charges beneath $4.00 was in the July 15 publication.
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Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 8, 2026.
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