As of Wednesday, August 26, the prior two initial jobless claims reports depicted totals of 206k and 212k, and the Thursday release was projected to arrive at 208k. The range of potential outcomes was particularly wide, however, as the Reuters poll of 37 forecasters stood at a minimum of 200k and a maximum of 215k. Meanwhile, the $0.27 210K “Yes” contract in Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets was priced at $0.27. Also on Wednesday, over and under, the “Yeses” at 220k, 200k and 190k were going for $0.03, $0.75 and $0.88.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The WEI 2.8% “No” at $0.60
The US Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index hadn’t exceeded 2.71% for four conseucitve weeks as of Wednesday and in consideration of a slower pace of cyclical data in recent weeks, I didn’t anticipate that the gauge would exceed that level when published on Thursday and the 2.8% “No” contract was priced at just $0.60. Over and under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the “Nos” at 3.2%, 3%, 2.6% and 2.4% were going for $0.90, $0.85, $0.37 and $0.13.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 26, 2026.
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