Investing in financial products involves risk to your capital.

IBKR Resources

Useful Tools and Information

Close Navigation
Learn more about IBKR accounts

Talking Gold — July 2024

Posted July 16, 2024 at 2:10 pm

State Street Global Advisors

Originally Posted, 12 July 2024 – Talking Gold

Gold Market Recap

Gold finished a choppy month with a modest 0.42% decline, rebounding from slightly larger losses earlier in the month as softening economic data renewed rate cut hopes.1 Specifically, on the last trading day of the month, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, advanced at the slowest pace since March 2021.2

With softening economic data, implied fed funds forecasts signal the first rate cut may now be in November. The increased probability of at least one rate cut this year has helped gold maintain technical support above US$2,300/oz. And despite the slight loss in June, the yellow metal continues to exude positive cross-over momentum. The gold spot price once again closed above its crucial 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day ended the month well above the 100- and 200-day moving averages.3

For the quarter, the price of gold rose 5.26%. Gold is now up double digits (+12%) through the first half of the year, its best first half since 2020 when pandemic-related volatility sent prices higher.4 Excluding that anomalous period, this is gold’s best first half since 2016. 2024’s double-digit gains add to the counterintuitive 35% surge in the spot price since the first rate hike this cycle on March 15, 2021.5

This resilience in price action supports our view that gold has been able to weather macro headwinds from rates and the US dollar. Secular influences also underpin the rally, including fiscal imbalances, sustained demand from central banks, and overseas investor demand (e.g., China) for perceived safe-haven assets.

Gold Performance Drivers

Flows: In June, global gold ETF holdings increased by 0.29%, an estimated 7 metric tons(t).6 This was the first positive month of inflows since June 2023, according to Bloomberg data.4 Net speculative positioning in COMEX gold futures increased to 158,202 contracts in June, which is significantly higher than the 3-year average of 70,022 contracts.7 The recent extension of long contracts highlights that money managers remain bullish on gold.

Factors: Gold has been range bound since crossing US$2,300/oz for the first time in April. The yellow metal’s 14-day RSI is near 50, indicating that gold is in neither overbought nor oversold territory.8

Fundamentals: According to the World Gold Council 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) Survey, which was conducted between February 19, 2024 to April 30, 2024 with a total of 70 responses, 29% of central banks respondents intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level observed since the survey began in 2018.9

Golds thriving 853 days after first rare hike
Trailing 3-Year Gold Spot price

Gold ETF Flows

Gold ETF Holdings in metric tons

Gold Futures

Gold Futures

Footnotes

1 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024. Note: Gold is represented by LBMA Gold Price PM (US$/oz).
2 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
3 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
4 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
5 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
6 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
7 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
8 Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
9 World Gold Council, Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey, as of June 2024.

Important Risk Information

This communication is not intended to be an investment recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.

The views expressed in this material are the views of the SPDR Gold Strategy Team through the period ended June 30, 2024, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.

The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.

Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.

Investing in commodities entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Join The Conversation

If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..

Leave a Reply

Disclosure: State Street Global Advisors

Do not reproduce or reprint without the written permission of SSGA.

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

State Street Global Advisors and its affiliates (“SSGA”) have not taken into consideration the circumstances of any particular investor in producing this material and are not making an investment recommendation or acting in fiduciary capacity in connection with the provision of the information contained herein.

ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.

Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.

Investing in high yield fixed income securities, otherwise known as “junk bonds”, is considered speculative and involves greater risk of loss of principal and interest than investing in investment grade fixed income securities. These Lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer.

COPYRIGHT AND OTHER RIGHTS

Other third party content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them. All rights reserved. No organization or individual is permitted to reproduce, distribute or otherwise use the statistics and information in this report without the written agreement of the copyright owners.

Definition:

Arbitrage: the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency, or commodities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset.

Fund Objectives:
SPY: The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500® Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the “Portfolio”), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

VOO: The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization stocks. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U.S. stock market performance that is dominated by the stocks of large U.S. companies. The advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

IVV: The investment seeks to track the investment results of the S&P 500 (the “underlying index”), which measures the performance of the large-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. It may invest the remainder of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents, as well as in securities not included in the underlying index, but which the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index.

The funds presented herein have different investment objectives, costs and expenses. Each fund is managed by a different investment firm, and the performance of each fund will necessarily depend on the ability of their respective managers to select portfolio investments. These differences, among others, may result in significant disparity in the funds’ portfolio assets and performance. For further information on the funds, please review their respective prospectuses.

Entity Disclosures:

The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating  to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.

SSGA Funds Management, Inc. serves as the investment advisor to the SPDR ETFs that are registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Company Act of 1940. SSGA Funds Management, Inc. is an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors Limited.

Intellectual Property Disclosures:

Standard & Poor’s®, S&P® and SPDR® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s® Financial Services LLC (S&P); Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (Dow Jones); and these trademarks have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (SPDJI) and sublicensed for certain purposes by State Street Corporation. State Street Corporation’s financial products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates and third party licensors and none of such parties  make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability in relation thereto, including for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index.

BLOOMBERG®, a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance, L.P. and its affiliates, and BARCLAYS®, a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc., have each been licensed  for use in connection with the listing and trading of the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays ETFs.

Distributor: State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of State Street Corporation. References to State Street may include State Street Corporation and its affiliates. Certain State Street affiliates provide services and receive fees from the SPDR ETFs.

ALPS Distributors, Inc., member FINRA, is distributor for SPDR® S&P 500®, SPDR® S&P MidCap 400® and SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average, all unit investment trusts. ALPS Distributors, Inc. is not affiliated with State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors, LLC.

Before investing, consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. For SPDR funds, you may obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this and other information by calling 1‐866‐787‐2257 or visiting www.spdrs.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from State Street Global Advisors and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or State Street Global Advisors and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Disclosure: ETFs

Any discussion or mention of an ETF is not to be construed as recommendation, promotion or solicitation. All investors should review and consider associated investment risks, charges and expenses of the investment company or fund prior to investing. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at the Warnings and Disclosures section of your local Interactive Brokers website.

This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.