Trump Trade: President Trump pauses most tariffs, raises China’s to 125%

Amazon CEO believes sellers will pass increased tariff costs on to consumers

Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Donald Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly:

TARIFF PAUSE: 

Trump said he has authorized a 90-day pause and lower tariffs on countries negotiating with the U.S., while “immediately” raising tariffs charged to China to 125%. The U.S. President stated in a Truth Social post, “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

NEAR-TERM POSITIVE: 

Raymond James Managing Director Ed Mills writes that the decision to implement a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs on trading partners ex-China is a near-term positive, but the continued existence of a 10% universal tariff, the 125% China tariff, pending additional action on sector-specific tariffs, and the elevated uncertainty generated by the administration’s reversal will ultimately compound existing uncertainty for corporates, especially in the context of Trump’s push to reshore production and manufacturing in the U.S. The firm is keeping its view that the 10% global rate is important to the Trump administration for establishing a new revenue source as Congress considers a tax package that could exceed $5T.

GROWTH SLOWDOWN: 

Citi U.S. chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst says President Trump pausing reciprocal tariffs excluding China does not mean the U.S. economy has avoided a slowdown in growth and rise in inflation. The 10% baseline tariff, additional 125% tariffs on most Chinese goods, and sector-specific tariffs raise the average U.S. effective tariff rate by about 21 percentage points from its level at the beginning of the year, the economist tells investors in a research note. Citi believes uncertainty over trade will persist and non-China imports may now surge, “damping growth” in Q2. The firm continues to expect the Federal Reserve to cut policy rates in May or June.

RECESSION PROBABILITY: 

Evercore ISI writes that despite the Trump trade pivot with a partial retreat on broad reciprocal tariffs, the firm still sees the probability of U.S. recession at 35%-40%. The firm’s framework sees a scenario in which tariffs peak around 25% and come down to 15%-17% per cent by Q1. Evercore also writes that while the re-direction of purchases from China to countries like Vietnam might shave a few tenths of Q4 core PCE inflation previously estimated at 3.5%, roughly 13% of U.S. imports that still come from China are products not easily sourced elsewhere, and the scope to substitute this year may be limited.

NON-RECESSION BASELINE: 

After President Trump announced a 90 day pause on the additional country-specific portion of the “reciprocal” tariff and is leaving in place all prior tariffs and the 10% minimum portion of the reciprocal tariff, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius notes that the firm continues to expect additional sector-specific tariffs that are “likely to sum to something close to our previous expectation” of a 15 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate. The firm is now reverting to its previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession, Goldman noted.

HIKE PRICES OR LEAVE: 

Chinese companies selling products on Amazon (AMZN) will either hike prices for the U.S. or quit the market due to President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, David Kirton of Reuters reports, citing sellers and the head of China’s largest e-commerce association. “This isn’t just a tax issue, it’s that the entire cost structure gets entirely overwhelmed,” said Wang Xin, the head of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association. “It’ll be very hard for anyone to survive in the U.S. market.” 

Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said during an interview on CNBC that he believes sellers will pass increased tariff costs on to consumers. Jassy added that Amazon will do everything it can to keep prices low and that he has not seen a change in consumer behavior yet and hasn’t yet seen a meaningful impact from tariffs.

OIL PRICES FALL: 

U.S. shale oil producers are facing their gravest threat after a sudden crude price sell-off triggered by President Trump’s trade war pushed parts of the sector to the brink of failure, Jamie Smyth and Myles McCormick of The Financial Times report. Since Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement, U.S. oil prices have fallen 12%, leaving them below the level many producers say they need to break even. Publicly traded companies in the oil or gas space include PBF Energy (PBF), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Valero (VLO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE), and BP (BP). 

AUTO TARIFFS: 

President Trump’s auto tariffs will not only make buying a car more expensive, but owning one more costly as well, Joe Pinsker of The Wall Street Journal reports. Tariffs on cars and auto parts will push up the cost of insurance and repairs. While these costs will not surge as much as the cost of a new vehicle will, they will still affect a large number of consumers. Publicly traded companies in the space include Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Honda (HMC), Mercedes-Benz (MBGYY), Nissan (NSANY), Stellantis (STLA), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (VWAGY).

IPHONE AIRLIFTED FROM INDIA: 

Apple (AAPL) has chartered cargo flights to ferry as many as 1.5M iPhones from India to the U.S. in an effort to beat President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Aditya Kalra, Abhijith Ganapavaram and Munsif Vengattil of Reuters report, citing sources. Analysts have warned iPhone prices could surge due to the company’s high reliance on imports from China. 

NVIDIA EXPORT RESTRICTIONS: 

After Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang went to Mar-a-Lago last week, the White House reversed course on Nvidia H20 export restrictions to China, in the works for months, NPR’s Emily Feng and Bobby Allyn report. According to two sources with knowledge of the plan, the export controls on H20 had been in the works for months, but the change of course came after Nvidia promised the Trump administration new U.S. investments in AI data centers.

TEVOGEN GENETICS: 

Tevogen (TVGN) announced its newest effort: Tevogen Generics. “This effort is in response to the growing national focus on pharmaceutical affordability and coincides with the recent tariff-related statements from President Donald Trump,” the company said. To lead the launch of Tevogen Generics, the company has expended responsibilities of its Chief Commercial Officer, Sadiq Khan, to include Interim Head of this new effort. The company noted that Tevogen Generics now stands as the third strategic pillar of Tevogen Bio Holdings, joining Tevogen Bio – specialty immunotherapy biotech pioneering off-the-shelf, precision T cell therapies; Tevogen.AI – leveraging artificial intelligence to accelerate drug discovery and streamline healthcare delivery; and Tevogen Generics – dedicated to making high-quality, essential medicines accessible to all.

CONSULTANCY CONTRACTS: 

President Trump’s administration is threatening to terminate hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of consulting contracts, after finding U.S. firms’ proposals for savings to be “insulting,” Financial Times’ Joe Miller and Stephen Foley report. In a letter being sent to 10 large consulting groups this week, a copy of which was seen by the Financial Times, the US government accuses the firms of “faulty reasoning, financial obfuscations and gamesmanship” in their discussions with the administration, and threatens to “recompete” long-standing deals. Firms including Accenture (ACN), Deloitte, IBM (IBM) and Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) were asked last month to identify savings in a “consultant spend review” launched by the General Services Administration, which helps co-ordinate government procurement. Other publicly traded companies that might be impacted by the news include CACI (CACI), Leidos (LDOS), SAIC (SAIC), and General Dynamics (GD).

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Originally Posted April 10, 2025 – Trump Trade: President Trump pauses most tariffs, raises China’s to 125%