Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Weekly Econ Index Expectations: May 13, 2026

On Wednesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction market anticipated the following day’s April retail sales report would show total transaction growth slowing to around 0.3% after March’s 1.7% ascent. In addition to depicting a retreat in consumer spending volumes, the result would also be negative from an economic growth perspective, since inflation last month hit 0.6%, sinking the price-adjusted sales measure to -0.3%. The dynamic is important, as it illustrates how higher price pressures place more of the burden on households to power gross domestic product further. The “Yes” contracts across the -0.5%, 0% and 0.5% thresholds on Wednesday were priced at $0.88, $0.71 and $0.20. For context, the monthly Reuters poll of 56 forecasters carried a median estimate of 0.5% amidst minimum and maximum projections of -0.3% and 1%.

Claims to Remain Subdued

Initial unemployment claims to be released on Thursday were expected Wednesday to rise slightly from 200k to around 204k, as the pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market carried a 64% probability of a figure above 200k amidst a 79% likelihood of a result that fails to exceed 210k. The odds signaled ongoing strength and stability in labor conditions, as numbers of 220k or below have historically been associated with economic expansions because they support continued consumer spending capacity.

Weekly Econ Index to Continue Reflecting Strength

Also as of Wednesday, the Thursday release of the Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed was expected to show that last week’s activity grew at an annualized pace of around 2.6% according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market. The “Yes” at that threshold was priced at $0.51, while the “Yes” at 2.2% was available for $0.87. We’ve consistently seen readings north of 2.5% for most of 2026, a development that bodes well for the ongoing expansion as well as corporate earnings.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 13, 2026. 

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