Former US Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has been making a comeback in his probabilities of being nominated as the central bank’s leader in recent days rising to as high as 38% Monday from as low as 24% last week. Warsh’s gain has trimmed National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s lead significantly with his chances now at 43% as of Tuesday, while current central banking official Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were at 9% and 2%, respectively. President Trump said yesterday that the announcement will arrive sometime next month while refraining from stating whether he favors either of the top two contenders. There were approximately 70k contracts open that are tied to the selection on Tuesday.
Participants Gearing Up for January Fed Decision
Monday’s trading action on ForecastEx featured building engagement in the Fed’s interest rate decision next month, as participants are increasingly sure that the central bank will pause with an 89% degree of certainty as of Tuesday. Earlier in December, the chances of an unchanged benchmark in January were a lot lower at 64%.
Singapore SORA Combo Trade Opportunity
The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) has run between 1% and 1.5% for 17 consecutive days, averaging 1.16% for the month of December amidst a seven-day mean of 1.29%. The IBKR ForecastTrader platform currently has contracts with thresholds ranging from above 0.6% to above 1.75%.
Dallas Fed’s Weekly Index
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index has exceeded 2.2% for four consecutive weeks and was likely to come in north of that level again for the week ended Dec. 27. IBKR ForecastTrader participants on Tuesday had placed the likelihood of the index exceeding that level at 65%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 30, 2025. Time until expiration was also as of the morning of Dec. 30, 2025.
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