PCE 3.6% “Yes” Was Potentially Undervalued at Just $0.31 Considering That the Median Estimate is 3.7%: July 29, 2026

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is generally well telegraphed by Wall Street as inputs from the Consumer and Producer gauges are available earlier in the month. As of Wednesday, June’s headline figure, scheduled for release on Thursday, was expected to be 3.7%, but the “Yes” at 3.6% in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market was going for what I considered to be an undervalued $0.31, since it should have cost north of $0.50, in my opinion. An in-line result of 3.7% or higher would deliver $1.00 back to investors, which would be over triple the original $0.31 paid. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 37 forecasters had minimum and maximum projections of 3.5% and 3.9%.  Additionally, the “Yeses” at 3.8% and 4% are at $0.11 and $0.09.

Initial Claims Have Been Volatile

US initial unemployment claims dropped to a 57-year low of 187k last week and there was at least one forecaster in the weekly Reuters poll as of Wednesday that anticipated a number below that from the Thursday tomorrow release. Indeed, the minimum estimate in the survey was 185k, amidst a median and maximum projection of 200k and 215k. Against this backdrop, the “Yeses” at 190k, 200k and 210k were going for $0.91, $0.65 and $0.47 within the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market. This indicator has been incredibly volatile lately, rising to as high as 230k in early June, before plunging south of 190k recently. In my view as of Wednesday, because the last two prints were under 210k and there was a strong expectation of that to occur again, the “No” at $0.53 was undervalued at that threshold.

WEI Has Also Been All Over the Place The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has been all over the place lately, covering a wide range spanning from 2.55% to 3.22% in the past eight weeks while the last four have delivered results of 2.93%, 2.6%, 3.12% and 2.55%. For tomorrow the Thursday afternoon report, the “Yeses” at 2.6% and 3.2% were priced at $0.67 and $0.22 on Wednesday, reflecting the recent readings of the indicator.

Europe GDP Expected to Recover

The eurozone’s second-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday appeared poised to recover in the subsequent day’s update. The prior period posted a -0.2% quarter-over-quarter rate. Most of the 39 forecasters in the quarterly Reuters poll expected a positive number, as the survey carried a median of 0.2% amidst minimum and maximum values of 0% and 0.7%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market agreed on a positive number, as the “Yes” at 0.2% was going for $0.39, while the “Yeses” at -0.2% and 0.6% cost $0.98 and $0.07 on Wednesday.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 29, 2026. 

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